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Australia
Regulated by ASIC, APRA, ACCC, AUSTRAC. Monetary authority: Reserve Bank of Australia.
The regime that governs published opinion here: Corporations Act financial product advice — AFSL, with a media exemption and a general-versus-personal-advice distinction.
Monetary policy

The Bank changed which inflation number counts, then kept watching the old one

Australia now measures its inflation target against a monthly figure. The Reserve Bank says it will keep making rate decisions off a quarterly one until 2027. Those are two different numbers.

Position

Australia's inflation target is now measured against a monthly figure that only began publishing in late 2025. But the Reserve Bank has said it will keep making its rate decisions off the older quarterly measure until the new one matures, which may take until 2027. So the number written into the target and the number actually driving decisions are not the same number, and will not be for some time.

Taken on its own terms that is a sensible choice. Steering off a brand new series before anyone can tell signal from noise would be reckless. The problem is where it was disclosed. It sits in a technical annex, while every monthly figure lands publicly as the inflation number. When the monthly figure moves and the Bank does not, the obvious conclusion for a reader is that the Bank is ignoring the data. The real explanation is correct, public, and almost entirely unread.

Wrong if

The test is the months where the two measures point in different directions. If the Board moves with the monthly figure on those occasions, then the target and the decision variable are effectively the same thing, there is no gap, and I have invented a problem out of a transitional arrangement.

Equally, if the Bank starts naming which measure it weighted in the decision statement itself rather than in an annex, the communication failure I am describing is solved and the argument becomes historical within a meeting or two. Either outcome and I was wrong about how much this matters.

Tax

The $3 million super line rises less often than the word indexed suggests

A new tax applies to very large superannuation balances. The threshold is meant to rise with prices, but it only moves in $150,000 jumps — so most of the time it does not move at all.

Position

The new super tax was defended partly on the ground that its three million dollar line is indexed, so ordinary savers will not be quietly caught by it over the years. But the line does not rise smoothly. It moves in jumps of $150,000, which is five per cent of three million. At inflation inside the target band, five per cent takes roughly two years to accumulate.

So for most of any given stretch the line does not move at all, while balances keep compounding toward it. People sitting just below the threshold cross it through nothing more than ordinary market returns and the contributions they were always going to make. That may well be the intended outcome, and there is a respectable case for it. But it is not what most people heard when they were told the threshold was indexed.

Wrong if

Two things settle this, and both are observable within a few years. How often the three million dollar line actually steps up between now and 2030, and what happens to the number of people assessed under the tax across those same years.

If the line moves at least every second year and the affected group stays roughly flat as a share of fund members, then the step size never mattered and I have made a problem out of a footnote. If the line sits still for three years while the assessed count climbs, the word indexed was carrying weight the mechanism could not support, and the people who raised it early were right to.

Fintech

Crypto firms lost their safety net ten months before the new rules start

The relief letting Australian crypto platforms trade while the law was settled ran out in June. The law replacing it does not begin until April 2027. In between, they are back under the rules everyone agreed were broken.

Position

Australian crypto platforms are sitting in a ten-month gap nobody planned for them. The regulator's formal promise not to prosecute expired at the end of June 2026. The law replacing the old rules does not commence until April 2027. In between, firms are governed by exactly the unclear regime the new law was written to fix, without the relief that made it liveable.

Aligning those two dates was available and obvious. That they were not aligned is a choice, and the cost of it lands on the smallest operators, who can least afford ten months of legal limbo and are the most likely to simply stop trading. It also leaves the regulator holding only the tool it has spent a decade being criticised for using, pointed at a population it has just told to get licensed under rules that have not started.

Wrong if

Enforcement activity between now and April 2027 decides this. If the regulator brings no action against firms that lodged their applications in time, and simply waits for the new rules to begin, then the gap was paperwork and the concern was theoretical.

If it does act under the old provisions during a window created by its own deadline, the sequencing was a real cost paid by real firms. The lesson for the next framework would then be a simple one: relief should expire when its replacement starts, not ten months before.

Payments

The Treasurer can now switch on payment rules that only the Reserve Bank used to control

New laws widened who regulates digital wallets and buy-now-pay-later, which was well covered. They also handed a politician a power that belonged to the central bank, which was not.

Position

The reform widened what counts as a payment system, so that digital wallets, buy-now-pay-later and cash distribution all fall inside it. That part was overdue and well argued. But the same law quietly changed something else: who decides when the regulator's powers actually switch on. That decision used to belong to the Reserve Bank alone, an institution kept deliberately at arm's length from politics and tested against a public interest standard that has been argued over for twenty-five years.

Now a politician can make it too, where doing so is in the national interest. The grounds expressly include national security and crisis management. Those are not payments questions, and reasons given on those grounds often cannot be published. A decision nobody can see is a decision nobody can argue with. That is a different kind of power from the one the Bank holds, and it arrived without any of the debate the perimeter change got.

Wrong if

Watch the first designation a Treasurer actually makes, and the reasons published alongside it. If it names a dominant wallet or settles an access dispute on ordinary competition or consumer grounds, the Reserve Bank would have reached the same place on its own, and this whole argument is about a formality.

The same follows if the power simply sits unused. A power nobody exercises has changed nothing in practice, whatever it changed on paper. If no minister has designated a payment system by 2029, then I was arguing about a provision rather than a policy, and the people who told me the perimeter was the real story were right.