The Bank changed which inflation number counts, then kept watching the old one
Australia now measures its inflation target against a monthly figure. The Reserve Bank says it will keep making rate decisions off a quarterly one until 2027. Those are two different numbers.
Australia's inflation target is now measured against a monthly figure that only began publishing in late 2025. But the Reserve Bank has said it will keep making its rate decisions off the older quarterly measure until the new one matures, which may take until 2027. So the number written into the target and the number actually driving decisions are not the same number, and will not be for some time.
Taken on its own terms that is a sensible choice. Steering off a brand new series before anyone can tell signal from noise would be reckless. The problem is where it was disclosed. It sits in a technical annex, while every monthly figure lands publicly as the inflation number. When the monthly figure moves and the Bank does not, the obvious conclusion for a reader is that the Bank is ignoring the data. The real explanation is correct, public, and almost entirely unread.
The test is the months where the two measures point in different directions. If the Board moves with the monthly figure on those occasions, then the target and the decision variable are effectively the same thing, there is no gap, and I have invented a problem out of a transitional arrangement.
Equally, if the Bank starts naming which measure it weighted in the decision statement itself rather than in an annex, the communication failure I am describing is solved and the argument becomes historical within a meeting or two. Either outcome and I was wrong about how much this matters.